106. The following appeared in a memo1 to the Saluda town council from the towns business manager.
Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who dont exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saludas municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cosplayt of our group health insurance coverage2 by approximately 50% and thereby3 achieve a balanced town budget.
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
In this memo Saludas business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the towns budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who dont exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cosplayt of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings4 on insurance would balance the towns budget. The managers argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious5 assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saludas employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable6 since the mere7 fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saludas employees do not exercise regularly. once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Saudas employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cosplayt of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cosplayt of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cosplayt of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate8 the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the managers plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business managers proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saludas budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.
