95. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
Hippocrene Plumbing1 Supply recently opened a wholesale2 outlet3 in the location once occupied by the Cumquat Cafe. Hippocrene has apparently4 been quite successful there because it is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city. But the Cumquat Cafe, one year after moving to its new location, has seen its volume of business drop somewhat from the previous years. Clearly, the former site is a better business location, and the Cumquat Cafe has made a mistake in moving to its new address.
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
Hippocrene铅管提供商在一度为Cumquat咖啡馆的地方开了一家直销店。Hippocrene目前相当的成功，由于他们正计划在临近城市经营一家大的直销店。但Cumquat咖啡馆在搬到新地址一年后发现它的业务量比前一年有所降低。非常明显，它的前一个地址是一个更好的商务地址，Cumquat咖啡馆作出搬迁决定是不对的。
1， gratuitous5 assumption: It is absurd to say the Hippocrene has been quite successful in the original location of Cumquat Caf Restaurant only because the former is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city.
2， false analogy
3， causal oversimplification: Other factors other than the location that may contribute to the success of the H and the failure of the C should be considered and ruled out.
Business is obviously unsuitable to the location. On the other hand, a bank in the same location might be extremely successful simply because of its suitability to the location.
In the third place, the authors claim that Hippocrene has been successful at Cumquats previous location is unwarranted. The fact that Hippocrene intends to open a new outlet is insufficient6 to establish this claim. It is possible that the plan to open a new outlet was prompted by a lack of business at the Cumquat location.
Finally, the author unfairly assumes that one years time at the new location is adequate to conclude whether Cumquat made a mistake in moving to that location. Its is entirely7 possible that given more time, perhaps another year or so, Cumquat will become profitable at the location. Common sense informs me that this is a distinct possibility, since it often takes more than one year for a restaurant to establish a customer base at a given location.
In conclusion, the authors argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the conclusion the author would have to evaluate other possible causes of the performance of the businesses and eliminate all except location as the cause in each case. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that location rather than suitability to a location was the cause of the success of Hippocrene and the failure of Cumquat.
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