Sample essay 3:
based on an expected increase in the number of middle-aged1 people during the next decade, the author predicts that retail2 sales at department stores will increase significantly over the next ten years. To bolster3 this prediction, the author cites statistics showing that middle-aged people devote a much higher percentage of their retail expenditure4 to department-store services and products than younger consumers do. Since the number of middle-aged consumers is on the rise and since they spend more than younger people on department-store goods and services, the author further recommends that department stores begin to adjust their inventories5 to capitalize on this trend. Specifically, it is recommended that department stores increase their inventory6 of products aimed at middle-aged consumers and decrease their inventory of products aimed at younger consumers. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
First, an increase in the number of middle-aged people does not necessarily portend7 an overall increase in department-store sales. It does so only on the assumption that other population groups will remain relatively8 constant. For example, if the expected increase in the number of middle-aged people is offset9 by an equally significant decrease in the number of younger people, there will be little or no net gain in sales.
Second, in recommending that department stores replace products intended to attract younger consumers with products more suitable to middle-aged consumers, the author assumes that the number of younger consumers will not also increase. Since a sizable increase in the population of younger consumers could conceivably offset the difference in the retail expenditure patterns of younger and middle-aged consumers, it would be unwise to make the recommended inventory adjustment lacking evidence to support this assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that the population of younger consumers will remain relatively constant over the next decade.
