Confidence among some of the worlds TOP business leaders has slumped1 to its lowest levels since June 2002, suffering from concerns about financial market volatility2 and mixed US economic data, according to an investment banking3 survey.
高盛信心指数这项截至8月份第一周的国际性调查,是依据首席实行官们对商业环境的评估编撰而成,被视为描述企业信心的要紧指标。最新调查显示,继过去几个季度的乐观数据之后,企业首席实行官对今年第三季度前景的信心已大幅降低。
The Goldman Sachs Confidence Index, an international survey conducted until the first week of August, is based on chief executives assessments4 of business conditions and regarded as a leading indicator5 of corporate6 sentiment. The latest survey shows their outlook for the third quarter of the year has declined dramatically, after buoyant readings in the past few quarters.
今年第三季度全球商业前景总体读数为33,较第二季度的57大幅降低。
The headline reading for the global business outlook for the third quarter stands at 33 a steep fall from the reading of 57 in the second quarter.
50的读数,标志着觉得商业环境正在改变的首席实行官与持相反看法的首席实行官之间的分界线。高盛是在金融市场波动的头两周期间展开的此项调查。
A score of 50 marks the piding line between executives who think conditions are improving and those who feel they are worsening. Goldman ran the survey during the first two weeks of turmoil7 in financial markets.
不过,信心骤降尚未对买卖意愿构成影响,某些行业的一些首席实行官还觉得,信贷危机是他们在出价方面超越其私人股本角逐对手的一个机会,由于信贷危机迫使这类私人股本退出竞购。
However, the collapse8 of confidence has not yet affected9 the willingness to do deals and several chief executives in several sectors10 see the credit crunch11 as an opportunity to outbid their private equity12 rivals as it forces them to the sidelines.
高盛资深全球经济学家桑德拉?劳森表示:最近前景存在很多不确定性,但假如信贷危机对私人股本导致影响,这可能也为企业带来一个机会,尤其是在买卖价格降低的时候。
There is an enormous amount of uncertainty13 about the outlook in the near-term, but if the credit shock hurts private equity, it may also provide an opportunity for corporates, especially as deal multiples come down, said Sandra Lawson, senior global economist14 at Goldman Sachs.
本月,因为私人股本集团CVC Capital Partners未能为其回收买卖提供筹资,帝国烟草公司以高价成功购得法国和西班牙合资的阿塔迪斯烟草公司。3月份,在竞购阿克苏旗下制药公司Organon Biosciences时,美国制药集团先灵葆雅击败了私人股本公司。
This month, Imperial Tobacco outbid CVC Capital Partners to buy Altadis, the Franco-Spanish tobacco company, after the private equity group was unable to finance its deal. In March, Schering Plough, the US pharmaceuticals16 group, beat private equity firms in the auction17 for Organon Biosciences, an Akzo-owned pharmaceutical15 unit.
瑞银集团欧洲并购业务主管汤姆?库珀表示,现在企业应处于从此次市场调整中获益的最有利地位。他表示:尤其是对于投资级的企业来讲,这可能是一次机会。与私人股本不同,策略性用户可以通过自有资金来弥补筹资缺口。
Tom Cooper, European head of MA at UBS said corporate buyers should be best placed to benefit from this correction. There could be a window of opportunity for investment grade buyers in particular. Unlike private equity, strategic buyers can bridge funding gaps with their own paper, he said.
信心指数还显示,厂房和设施方面的资本支出数据几乎没变化。这方面的资本支出是收益和经济增长的传统动力。
The confidence index also showed little change in the readings for capital spending on factories and equipment the traditional engine of profit and economic growth.
尽管全球信心指数从第二季度的68降至第三季度的57,但美国首席实行官们预计商业环境将略有改变。
Although the global reading has fallen from 68 in the second quarter to 57 in the third, US chief executives expected conditions to improve slightly